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Showing posts with label #NegotiatingPeaceinaDigitalWorld. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #NegotiatingPeaceinaDigitalWorld. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 11

Negotiating Peace in a Digital World




 0:32
32 seconds
Hello everyone and welcome to the official launch of the digital ceasefire and deescalation handbook We're really
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excited to have you all here today with us to officially launch it. Are you able to hear me? Okay. Okay. Uh so, uh the
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digital ceasefire and deescalation handbook is designed to help parties and mediators negotiate the digital
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components of armed conflict, grayzone activity, and internal disturbances.
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This ranges from everything like internet interference to information threats online to cyber attacks. We're
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also very proud that we had a huge constituency develop our handbook with us. Um I'll say my name is Betsy Popkin.
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I'm the executive director of the human rights center at UC Berkeley. This is Brett Solomon, my partner in crime on
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this project and uh currently a senior research fellow at the human rights center and previously executive director
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of access now. Together we used our kind of my experience with on the ground peace and ceasefire negotiations helping
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parties and we used um Brett's experience kind of in the digital rights space. And so I think together with
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along with over four dozen people we interviewed and who contributed to our many drafts um of written product we're
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at a place where uh we think this can be very useful. We included parties from negotiations, mediators, diplomats. We
2 minutes, 8 seconds
included information from ICT companies, uh, CSOS in conflict situations, affected communities as well as
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technical experts. And so I think we're at a really good place right now to launch this. Um, I also want to
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introduce everyone to one of the people who gave us uh multiple uh advice and
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that's Francesca Bosco. She's the acting head of the uh security and technology program at Unidair. And um before I turn
2 minutes, 41 seconds
it over to her, she's going to help us launch the handbook. So she will say uh give a few kind of words on kind of what
2 minutes, 49 seconds
this handbook means and then together we will all count down 5 4 3 2 1. I will
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ask you at that time to uh take out your phones and take a picture of
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the QR code here and that will give you access to the digital ceasefire and deescalation platform that we've created
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for party parties and negotiators to use. So with that, Francesca, over to you.
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Thank you so much. And uh u Betsy Bart, it's a it's a great pleasure to be here with you and and and thanks a lot for uh
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for all the great audience that we're having today. Um um without further ado, I would like to go immediately into the
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yeah basically into why I believe this framework and this work is particularly
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relevant and and um in a way I think the
3 minutes, 49 seconds
importance of this um incredible work that you that that you put together. And
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also um uh I just would like to mention that I think we started the discussion more than a year ago. So exactly so two
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years ago. So I mean um a huge amount of work went into this as also Betsy was mentioning. But the importance is
4 minutes, 11 seconds
addressing a real gap in the way that we negotiate and we implement um ceasefire.
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So I think digital activities are now deeply embedded um in the conduct of conflict and also the functioning of
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essential services and the information environment in which civilians and humanitarian um actors operate but yet
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they are if you're familiar let's say with this field uh you might have noticed that they are rarely addressed systematically I would say in ceasefires
4 minutes, 43 seconds
agreements and so the digital ceasefire and the deescalation handbook offers a way to change that from a very pragmatic
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standpoint and it gives mediators and negotiating parties a structured basis
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basically for identifying which digital activities need to be addressed. Um uh translating those concerns into specific
5 minutes, 4 seconds
commitments and also considering how those commitments can be implemented and monitored. Um I see three particular
5 minutes, 12 seconds
important contribution and I mean mindful about time but because I mean I'm I'm so passionate about this project and and and and also let's say
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definitely to give credit to the excellent work done so far. First it makes the digital deescalation negotiable.
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Um the framework helps move beyond broad statements about responsible behavior towards provision that can be adapted to
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the realities and also um to not only to the broader spectrum of conflict but to the specific conflict. This is important
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because the objective is not necessarily to stop all digital activities um but it is to prevent digital operation and
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disruptions from undermining assess assessiation of hostilities endangering civilians and obstructing humanitarian
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action. It also means um not only to stop but also to consider affirmative commitments and for example I mean I'm
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thinking like uh um preserving the access to essential communication for example and uh restoring services when they have this been disrupted.
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Second, um I would say it connects commitments with implementation. And again going back to the very much
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pragmatic dimension um of this work, a provision in an agreement is only meaningful if the parties have a
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reasonable understanding of what compliance entails and how incidents will be handled. In the digital
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environment, as you know, attribution is um often very difficult. evidence can be
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incomplete and technical incidents can quickly acquire political as well as security implications. Um, we therefore
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need clear communication channels, agreed procedure for reporting and assessing the incident. And also I I'd
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like to say what I very much like also of this work is that it's very realistic.
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um and especially in one function that is extremely difficult in usual I would say commonly understood ceasefire and
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especially in digital citiz uh which is the dimension of monitoring and verification. So our experience with cyber crisis simulation for example
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working at unity and international points of contact mechanism reinforces the importance of establishing this arrangement before a crisis occurs and
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so the aim is not to completely eliminate the uncertainty but to basically to manage it without allowing further escalation. And then the last
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and the third and last point is it brings the relevant actors into the picture. I remember some of the discussion that we were having also in
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let's say in the in in the various workshop which are the actors that need to be at the table when we think about the digital infrastructure and services
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that are often operated for example by private companies uh including telco provider cloud and satellite operators and technology platforms usually they
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are not part of ceasefire agreement and so how we can engage with them in a meaningful way while respecting the
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sensitivity of the issue at stake the corporation is essential um as well as thinking about for example civil society
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organizations. So the roles cannot be assumed or left undefined and so the framework needs to help clarifying
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responsibilities channels of engagement and safeguards while presenting the obviously the responsibilities of parties and public authorities. Um the
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last forwardlooking consideration is that AI and emerging technologies are changing the speed and complexity of
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digital conflict including the produ production and circulation for example of synthetic ah content and the
8 minutes, 57 seconds
possibilities for manipulation and escalation and the framework should be then sufficiently adaptable to
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accommodate basically um these developments while retaining the the specificities that makes it useful in
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negotiations. So yeah, I just would like to to stop here just giving some food for thoughts and also context for the
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people to really understand I mean the actual let's say the actual use that the framework might have. Thanks.
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Thank you Francesca really appreciate that. Um, I'm going to ask everyone now to take out their phones and take a
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picture of the QR code and all together in just a few minutes, a few seconds,
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we're going to count down from five and then I want you to open the QR code at
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one five 4 3 2 1.
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So this is what it looks like in print, but we're very excited about this platform we created which can help
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people uh draft their own uh digital ceasefire agreement. So you could see
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here there's a link to the handbook in totality, but the part that I'm most excited about is the build your own
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build an agreement. And there's two different ways to do that. One is to build it from scratch where you see the provisions. So you would click as you
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scroll down you would click build from scratch and then it provides you with different uh categories that you would
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typically see in a ceasefire agreement but uh adapted to the digital space. And again this can happen not just in armed
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conflict negotiations can take place in gray zone activities and can also take place in internal disturbances. So you
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see there are preamble provisions. If you click that you can click add to any of the provisions to add it to your
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agreement. Then entry into force prohibited digital operations is an interesting one. We've divided it into
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three categories. Internet interference, information threats and cyber attacks.
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Third parties is also interesting. You heard Francesca talk about the involvement of ICT companies. um we
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include that there as well. And it was fascinating to incorporate the viewpoints of uh social media
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representatives, cyber security representatives and telecom representatives into this too because their products and services are often
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used to contribute to digital hostilities. And so getting their ideas on how they could contribute to ending
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them, but most importantly helping with the monitoring we thought was very important. um constructive digital operations,
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digital monitoring commission, which we think is going to be most of the one of the most important things is how do you actually monitor what's taking place and
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therefore enforce it. Um and we have a bunch of provisions in there too scaled up and down depending on how much
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parties think they can commit to actually um an outside monitor or whether they want to do it internally.
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dissemination and pro promotion of the agreement, external support, signatures, and then we have an annex on commitments to international law. Um, in traditional
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peace and ceasefire negotiations, you have annexes on international law, and this was something Brett and I went back and forth on quite a bit because there's
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some international law dealing with cyber operations and but um, a lot of it is not completely agreed. So, we
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included what there is currently and hoping to build that out further. And with that, I will turn it over to Brett to do the tabletop.
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Thank you. Hi everyone. Good to see you all. Uh Brett Solomon's my name. Um thank you very much Francesca for the
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launch. Um my audio is okay. When we started working on this project, it was basically a recognition that um war is
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um currently defined by so many features that aren't actually in the peace agreements that are meant to stop them.
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So you can see peace agreements that we looked at since I think I looked at 2 and a half thousand agreements from 1990. And you can see all of those
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agreements deal with tanks and troops and humanitarian corridors, but almost none of them deal with issues like cyber attacks, like internet shutdowns.
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There's no mention of the word Facebook in almost any agreement or Meta or X or Tik Tok. And yet, as we know,
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contemporary warfare is played out on those platforms. So if you've got peace which is being codified without the
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necessary language to reflect the conflict that you're trying to stop, you've failed in contemporary in this in
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contemporary environment. And that's exactly what the handbook is trying to do is to give negotiators and mediators and parties the language, the terms, the
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frameworks to be able to say, okay, this peace agreement, this ceasefire agreement reflects the conflict that people are experiencing, particularly on the ground. I think one of the other
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things that we learn is that like often peace agreements, ceasefire agreements happen between diplomats. They happen between parties. In fact, somebody made
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a comment earlier today which was something like why is it that the people who are designing peace are all the also
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the people who constructed war. And I think that we're trying to actually diversify that to recognize that there
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are people involved in digital warfare uh on the ground. And I think all of us are experiencing digital conflict on our
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h on our devices um with our data breaches with the cyber attacks etc. You don't need to be in a in a war in an
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armed conflict to experience digital conflict. And I think that we're trying to look at the full spectrum of how
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peace should be constructed, ceasefire should be constructed today. And to do that, we thought it would be a good opportunity to give you all an opport
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some time to kind of negotiate what a ceasefire, a digital ceasefire might look like. Now, I'm going to tell you,
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having worked on this now for quite a few years, that it is so unbelievably complex. It is such a such a difficult
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terrain to navigate for many of the reasons that we've already mentioned, some of which um relate to the fact that
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you might wish to create peace or you might wish to advocate for a ceasefire, but the infrastructure is actually owned by the private sector.
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The digitalization of warfare is the is happening in privatized spaces but conflict has traditionally been between
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states. So how do you negotiate when you don't necessarily have control over those actors? Um another complexity
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relates to the fact that um the you know a shutdown might actually stop other
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forms of warfare. So parties are shutting down the internet because they want to stop their adversary from using
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the internet as a a framework and as a conduit for conflict. But who is who is
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impacted? Civilians. And we've seen in Iran, in Sudan, in Ethiopia, in India,
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we have so many conflicts that are taking place where the civilians themselves are the the the the victims
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of this. when the decisions are made by, you know, parties in power in order to weaken their adversary and they don't
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care about the civilians. Some people have been uh offline in Sudan, in Tigra for hundreds of days. You know how it
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feels when you lose the internet for 15 minutes. I don't know if you've tried to log on here at the Paris Peace Forum. Um but you know, imagine not being able not
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to be connected for hundreds of days, three 400 days. And so we're going to use a tabletop exercise now. Um, and I'm
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going to ask uh our lovely friends to hand out an AB AB thing. So you'll you'll negotiate with the person next to you. I'm going to give you some more
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details. So um yeah, I need to click a few things. I'm sorry. So here's the
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exercise. So the scenario that you are facing uh is that um there's a physical
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ceasefire in place but there has been an internet shutdown. So your physical uh kinetic ceasefire deals with the tanks
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and the troops and the humanitarian corridors says nothing about an internet shutdown. And so that's what we're going to get you to negotiate. Don't worry there's this is just a um a scenario.
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It's a table tuck exercise. No one's going to get hurt. Um, but it does give you a sense of um how complex this is.
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Uh, and really what each of your goals are, you can see on the top of your page each of your goals uh when it gets to you.
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Can you excuse me? Can you pass them around to everyone? Yeah. Thanks. Um,
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uh, is that both of you want an agreement? Okay, that's the good news.
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both parties, whether be be party A or party B, there should be 30 of each, so it's enough for 60 people and they're alternated between you.
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You'll be pairing up with the person sitting next to you.
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Um is is that um you know to try and reduce or to prevent an internet
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shutdown from from from continuing. I will tell you that in 2025 there were 313 internet shutdowns that happened
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around the world. 313 uh internet shutdowns in 52 countries. So this is not an academic thing. This is a reality
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of contemporary conflict. And the number one reason for internet shutdowns, the number one trigger was conflict. Um so
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with that, um you've broken into pairs. Now I'm going to get you to read your RO cards and I'm going to hand back to Betsy who's going to help you with the
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negotiation. I will say um just two other things. One is that you should be ready to compromise.
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And that's what negotiation and mediation is all about. It's trying to actually find a place where both of you can agree. That means you have to give up some things. A hand to Betsy.
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We'll give you a few minutes to read your cards.
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Really try to put your shoes in the person who will be negotiating.
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All right, everyone. Uh you will be negotiating with the person next to you.
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But remember uh each of you will begin by stating your priorities, outlining your objectives and concerns, and then
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negotiating three key questions. What is prohibited or deescalated? So which forms of internet interference,
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shutdowns, throttling must stop or deescalate or how long, for whom? and note where you agree and where you cannot agree.
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You'll also want to discuss what is allowed. Are any limited exceptions acceptable?
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And third, you'll want to discuss what happens when something goes wrong. How will outages be checked, restored, and
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addressed, and by whom? And this is a really important thing to focus on because ceasefires can't be effective if
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you're unable to monitor and enforce them. So with that, you all have 12 minutes to negotiate starting now.
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Yeah. Take your headphones off. Say hello to your negotiating partner. Abab and just do your best.
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Are we allowed to write in these? Yeah, you can take note.
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It was fun to put together. And we initially had a much bigger simulation and then we thought we had an hour.
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Sorry, let me just put my timer on.
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right now with the graduate I'm doing.
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It's really going to last 12 minutes. Okay.
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Because we have no
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What's that?
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There's a lot of flies.
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Everyone, please put your headphones back on.
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Thank you everyone. Uh we are now not through with the negotiations but we've
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entered a crisis. A major hospital and party B has suddenly lost its internet connection. Connectivity has also
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dropped dramatically across the surrounding area. Party B says party A has violated the ceasefire. Party A denies responsibility.
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Nobody has conclusive evidence about who caused the outage. We want you to talk together now for three minutes. Discuss
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what is prohibited, what is allowed, and what happens when something goes wrong.
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So, how does your agreement tell you what to do now in each of these three categories? And what would you change about what you already negotiated?
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And and just to say, I mean, this is exactly the sort of scenario that takes place. negotiations are underway and then this happens, a major hospital
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outage and so you need to deal you need to deal with the consequences of that.
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So over to you for another three minutes and then we're going to come back as a group and talk about some of the complexities, what you saw, what the challenges were, what the new things are and how to navigate them.
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Go for it.
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Hello. Hello.
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Hello. Can I get some audio? Can I get some audio?
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All right. Okay. Can I just can I get a show of hands? Did who here in their
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negotiating um partnership AB came to an agreement?
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Okay. Sort of. Okay. I feel like um Lady Gaga, this side did better than that side. Uh but
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um good to see good good to see some negotiations uh were somewhat successful. Why don't
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we um if we can move we're gonna move us on from the crisis to the debrief. Um does anybody wanna if we can get some mics around that would be good. Does
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anybody want to tell us what was Yep. up the back here. What was the hardest thing to agree on?
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I think the absolutely hardest thing to agree on was the fact that our red lines were technically the same on each side.
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meaning that the only thing we didn't want was the only thing that the that the other party absolutely needed to
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establish and then also the fact that in my case um my other party was of bad faith
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negotiations so it was a little bit complicated okay and can we hear from the actor who was acting in bad faith what was your
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I think it's the same point especially the fact that uh her red line was uh her
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her red line was also my red line. I don't think I was of bad faith. Uh I only needed to stick to my own argument.
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Uh but yeah, I think we see we always see the same we always face the same problems and I will say that typically happens in negotiations where parties have
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different red lines and in order to approach an agreement parties have to begin to make compromises even small compromises.
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She didn't want to. That was the issue and that happens too.
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All right. Who else wants to give us some insight into their negotiations? What was the hardest thing? Yep.
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Thanks. I think we did a French German cooperation here because we met in the middle uh somehow. But yeah, the the hard lines were difficult because in my
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case um I had to preserve hospitals and aid and um on his side it was no we we
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keep the shutdown. I'm like no we need to meet in the middle. So we agreed on the not having the hospitals um lacking
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internet and connection but the rest I had to concede.
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And this this becomes like you know very clear in negotiations as well where there's like a humanitarian
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consideration versus a strategic one. So one side is saying and particularly now with internet shutdowns which impact you
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know the whole of society we've seen with digitalization essentially seeping through all of our communities in the
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economy everything as you know. So when you take that away there's such significant consequences from a
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humanitarian perspective but then also from a strategic p perspective as we talked about earlier about the the military implications the strategic
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implications and how do you balance those two things not just in a digital ceasefire agreement but in a ceasefire agreement at large.
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So maybe I'll ask what did you discover your agreement needed that you hadn't anticipated over here.
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Thank you for uh the simulation. I think we realized we needed actually a third party that you were talking about
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companies um um ICT companies and actually the question was not whether or not they should be um signing the
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agreement. it was rather how we could actually get them to sign such an agreement uh in a situation where we would actually be wanting to impose
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regulations on them and so how do you get them to come to the negotiating table? What's the interest for them? Um and it's something we didn't have time
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to to really discuss but uh I think it would have been a very tough point. Thank you. Anyone else?
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I think yeah audience you don't hear please.
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Thank you. In a similar fashion, what we discovered that we needed is an actual third independent party that could actually carry us through the
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negotiation aspect and at the same time when something happens, let's an internet shutdown. Um, a commission that
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will be able to be independent and investigate who's actually at fault to be able to be persecuted.
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Yeah. And as you know, that's often the case with all negotiations.
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uh there is often a mediator involved and you need kind of an in you don't need but often to make it more enforceable an independent third party
38 minutes, 36 seconds
is really helpful for monitoring. Can I can I also just pick up on this issue? I think you mentioned my audio went down but on attribution which is such a one
38 minutes, 44 seconds
of the complexities that we've also discovered and I think anybody who's working in this space is like how do you actually attribute uh the attack
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particularly when it's virtual a cyber attack you know you know where the bombs have come from but where does the code come from I think is and is a challenge
39 minutes
and I think that one of the things that we've worked out is that you don't necessarily need to attribute like it may be possible to think about this not
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in terms of the nature of the attack or where the attack is coming from, but the harm. And if you look at this from a digital harm perspective, there may be a
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way to negotiate from uh in order to alleviate the harm. And it might just be a confidence building measure. We don't know who did it, but it won't happen again.
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There was a question or an answer over here.
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Uh thank you.
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Um, it was more of an answer. Uh, what we think that was needed was uh maybe to get down into the specifics.
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Oh, sorry.
39 minutes, 51 seconds
Uh, was to get into the specifics um because maybe we were really broad uh to want to cover each uh scenario possible.
40 minutes, 2 seconds
But when the hospital and the surrounded area came along, it was like okay. But we said that specific areas because the
40 minutes, 11 seconds
the a party wanted like to make it specific and we wanted to make it broad.
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So we reach to a conclusion. Okay. Well, the specific is okay, but we have to like speed up the process.
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And when the surrounded area came along, it was like, okay, well, the hospital, but the surrounded area, then we give up. And where do we start with the
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specific or or if we begin to be more specific specific the broadness then it's lost and we don't cover enough
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scenarios. So yes that um maybe uh just yeah sorry it's it's hard to decide.
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Thank you.
40 minutes, 52 seconds
Yeah I think we we should move on but I just want to say one point on internet shutdowns. The thing that we've learned over time is that shutdowns are even
41 minutes, 1 second
more and more nuanced in the sense that we used to see shutdowns will shut down a whole country. Now you can shut down a particular neighborhood or a particular
41 minutes, 10 seconds
apartment building or for a particular type of people, particular particular religious minority for instance or a particular platform. So it's becoming
41 minutes, 18 seconds
more and more surgical which makes the negotiations even more and more difficult as well or on the other hand more easy because you are so precise you
41 minutes, 25 seconds
can actually pinpoint language to that particular type of shutdown. Um let's move on to the the next slide because
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we've got only a few minutes left. Um and I want to just um if it's okay we'll first give yourselves a round of applause for that because I think we've
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well done everyone especially in that amount of time. very impressed and you were so serious about it too. We loved it.
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Um so so I think um there are a number of ways that the um
41 minutes, 58 seconds
that the the the handbook can help um that are really important for those who are either affected communities who are
42 minutes, 6 seconds
often excluded from negotiations parties or mediators and negotiators. And one of them is that we're trying to provide a
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common language for you. We're trying to provide a language that and a vocabulary where those words are not found in
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ceasefire agreements. Um and not only the the language but also the meaning of the words. So we have a whole series of definitions as well like what actually
42 minutes, 29 seconds
is a cyber attack? What is an internet shutdown? Um what is a DOS attack? All of these things that are important to negotiation to name them. I think the
42 minutes, 37 seconds
other thing that's important in terms of the handbook and how it can help um is it can provide an understanding of the legal framework. One of the things that
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I think many of us are working in this space have recognized is that international humanitarian law is really struggling to deal with this situation.
42 minutes, 53 seconds
Cyber attacks, internet shutdowns, etc.
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are happening in the absence of armed conflict. So what does that mean if IHL doesn't apply? So, there's a whole series of questions that we won't we
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don't have time to go through, but we'd like to also be available um to those who need assistance. We've already uh
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the handbook's already been used in a number of live conflicts, which is um very gratifying, but we're very happy Betsy and I and others in our community
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to be able to support and enable. This is a bringing together of digital and humanitarian, of legal and technical.
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And I think this convergence is extremely important when we sit here in this room where the universal declaration of human rights was actually founded or written or adopted front of
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the Eiffel Tower that this is this next generation and hopefully we and whoever here is interested can be part of that process going forward.
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So now what next? Uh what we want to continue doing, we've already started doing this, is advising mediators and
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parties actually involved in negotiations um to help integrate the digital components of what they're of
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what they're experiencing into their negotiations. Um we plan to conduct workshops and trainings for conflict
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affected communities. We already have seven different communities that have reached out to us for training. Um and
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then we're also participating in convenings to move the GL global conversation forward including in the
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international law space. Um so we'll be working with buildup and the Paris Peace Forum to lead um the development of
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voluntary principles for states on harmful information online and peace and security context. That's just one example of the way in which we'll try to move the global conversation forward.
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Um, and with that, I want to thank everyone here for being here, um, for attending, for your, uh, avid
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involvement in the simulation. Um, and please reach out anytime. Our, um, email addresses,
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well, I can't go back. Our email addresses are here, um, if you'd like to be in touch, and we'll stick around if you have any questions. Anything from you, Brett?
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I think that's it. Thank you so much. Thank you